| 1. | Among others , the probability analysis approach has difficulty in deciding objective probability , and thus it is necessary to obtain subjective probability through expert empirical prediction , modify it by the bayesian formula and get a posteriori probability , and substitute it for objective probability in risk measurement and risk premium calculation
其中，概率分析方法在应用中就存在客观概率不易确定的难点问题，因此需用专家经验预测法得到主观概率后，利用贝叶斯公式加以修正并获得后验概率，再用后验概率代替客观概率进行风险的度量及风险收益的计算。 |
